20 Nov Democrats Wonder What Went Wrong as Trump Gains Ground With Key Voter Groups in 2024 Election

“As America is shifting to a multiracial America, there’s been a huge assumption … this will be a progressive future,” said Robert Pape, a political science professor at the University of Chicago, at a Nov. 8 Ethnic Media Services briefing. (Screenshot captured by Samantha Kennedy / The CC Pulse)

By Samantha Kennedy

Following President-elect Donald Trump’s victory over Vice President Kamala Harris in the Nov. 5 election, Republicans are counting their wins — with white women, Latino voters and a Republican trifecta, as they gained not only the presidency but also control of the Senate while maintaining their lead in the House.

Democrats are left wondering where they went wrong.

“I do think we’re moving to a multiracial democracy,” said Robert Pape, a political science professor at the University of Chicago, at a Nov. 8 Ethnic Media Services briefing, “and we’re seeing that the GOP can play in that game and have just beaten the Democrats at that issue.”

That was clear in California, where support for Trump increased in Latino-majority counties from the 2020 presidential election. In San Joaquin Valley cities like Madera and Tulare, which already are a sure red spot in blue California, support for Trump grew by 6%.

Figuring out the increase in support for Trump among Latino voters is more complex than their ethnicity, Pape said.

“In other words, what happened here wasn’t just a racial split,” he said, “but it’s also a cross-cutting cleavage of issues related to religion and family values, which I think has not been part of the conversation as much.”

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Among priorities for Latino voters, “economic issues overtook everything,” Vanessa Cardenas of America’s Voice said.

Polls before the 2024 election showed that Latino voters polled felt Trump dealt better with economic issues, such as inflation and the cost of living.

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Trump “playing to chaos also helped moved” Latino voters toward him, Pape said.

Kelly Dittmar, director of research at Rutgers University’s Center for American Women and Politics, said Harris “embodied the type of change that Donald Trump has been tapping into” to incite fear in voters.

Those fears, she says, have something to do with threats to masculinity and gender norms.

A Public Religion Research Institution poll found that Trump supporters were more likely to agree with statements saying that society had become too feminine or soft and that men were punished for being men.

Women are also susceptible to those fears, Dittmar said. While over 90% of Black women voters supported Harris, exit polls showed a majority of white women — 53% — supported Trump.

During her 2024 presidential campaign, Harris and her running mate, Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, courted young voters, but the loss has some questioning whether the country is getting more progressive as expected.

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“As America is shifting to a multiracial America, there’s been a huge assumption by everybody, which is this will be a progressive future,” said Pape.

That’s especially true in California and the Bay Area, where voters rejected Proposition 6 to abolish any type of slavery for those incarcerated, ousted progressives Oakland Mayor Sheng Thao and Alameda County District Attorney Pamela Price and, in Richmond, favored Measure J over L.

Measure L is a Richmond Progressive Alliance-backed measure that would have implemented ranked-choice voting for city elections. Proponents say Measure L would have meant more candidates who are women, people of color and less wealthy.

Richmond was different from some cities when it came to progressives, reelecting District 6 incumbent Claudia Jimenez and electing Sue Wilson to take over Gayle McLaughlin’s seat in District 5. Both are RPA-backed candidates.

And, despite apparent losses by RPA-backed Melvin Willis and Otheree Christian in their respective races, the Richmond City Council and the West Contra Costa Unified School Board still hold progressive majorities — something nearby Antioch overwhelmingly rejected for its city council.

Still, on the national level “this is the worst outcome we could have expected,” Cardenas said, noting that Harris also did not receive the popular vote.

Cardenas did highlight, however, that most voters were not in favor of the mass deportations Trump had vowed, according to exit polls.

Cardenas said there was “a hard reality” and “a stubborn truth” about immigration in America, saying the country relies on immigration but that “immigration is being redefined.” She also said that conversations surrounding certain immigration policies, including birthright citizenship and the difference “between ‘legal’ and ‘undocumented,’ ” are “being mainstreamed.”

“This has profound implications for our democracy beyond just the numbers,” said Cardenas.

Immigration policies were also important to Asian American voters, many of who were against mass deportations and instead favored pathways to citizenship.

In October, a Pew Research Center poll showed that 82% of Asian American immigrants prioritized family immigration policies.

But John C. Yang, executive director of Asian Americans Advancing Justice, said a survey by his group found that priority was not isolated to Asian American immigrants — with 87% of Asian Americans born in the U.S. supporting it.

Yang said there was “an increasing enthusiasm and engagement” among Asian American voters. AAJC’s poll showed that 1 in 8 were first-time voters, and 28% of Asian Americans 18-29 were also first-time voters.

Support for Harris among Asian Americans, according to that poll, dropped by about 7% from the 2020 election.

Unlike in 2016 when protesters took to the streets and campuses to protest Trump’s election, anti-Trump protestors this time around have been relatively quiet.

Pape, however, pointed to the upcoming People’s March on Washington 2025, which is expecting thousands to show up in protest of Trump days ahead of his inauguration.

The march “is planned to be a peaceful gathering of 50,000,” he said. “That doesn’t mean it will be.”

Dittmar says instances of political violence can in some cases be incited through narratives that blame one group or another for the election loss.

“We just need to be aware that we are in a tinderbox of a country,” said Pape.