31 Jan Economist Says Closing County Refineries Would Be Opportunity to Rebuild

“What you have there is an opportunity to completely rebuild the industrial part of Contra Costa,” economist Christopher Thornberg told the Board of Supervisors on Tuesday, referring to the hypothetical closing of county refineries. (Screenshot captured by Samantha Kennedy / The CC Pulse)

By Samantha Kennedy

Progressives in Richmond have long envisioned a future without Chevron, advocating for a “just transition” that would phase out the city’s oil refinery and shift towards greener energy alternatives. However, this transition would come with significant economic challenges, including the loss of jobs and the city’s largest employer and taxpayer.

At a Contra Costa County Board of Supervisors meeting on Tuesday, economist Christopher Thornberg of Beacon Economics downplayed concerns over these losses, arguing that closing the county’s oil refineries could be an opportunity to rebuild the region’s industrial base.

“What you have here is an opportunity to completely rebuild the industrial part of Contra Costa, moving from heavy industry to light industry,” Thornberg said. He noted that refinery employment in Contra Costa has already dropped by 50% over the past decade.

Following the closure of the Marathon oil refinery in 2020, a UC Berkeley Labor Center and Contra Costa Refinery Transition Partnership study showed that 77.5% of laid-off workers were employed when surveyed during 2021 and 2022. However, finding new employment meant settling for a lower-paying job.

Thornberg explained that the land occupied by refineries is vast and offers deep-water access, making it ideal for repurposing in industries like logistics. This could provide new job opportunities for those currently employed at the refineries.

However, he believes the real challenge in transitioning the region is housing availability in Contra Costa.

“If you want to attract workers and grow your local labor force for other industries,” Thornberg said, “you need to have the housing to support it.”

In Contra Costa, El Cerrito by far had the most residential permits in 2024 with 767, according to an analysis by Thornberg’s firm. Next was Antioch with 304, though that was a decrease of over 100 in comparison to 2023’s permits. Unincorporated areas and Richmond had the next highest number of residential permits.

Thornberg says the common frustration he hears is the state doesn’t “have enough affordable housing,” which advocates in Antioch last year took issue with in a proposed housing development.

“It doesn’t work like that,” said Thornberg. “Affordability is a function of supply. You don’t build affordable housing, you build housing.”

Wildfire impacts

While wildfires, like those recently in Los Angeles, are nothing new to Californians, Thornberg said the rising insurance costs are one of the ways they’re now impacting homeowners.

“There’s more problems, and the cost of reconstruction is higher than it’s ever been,” he said.

Still, the problem isn’t unique to California — which includes the risk of wildfires, earthquakes and floods — with rates increasing nationwide, according to various reports.

Thornberg said homeowners and their cities do have some ways of reducing those increases.

“Mitigate the risks,” he said. “You mitigate the risks by obviously creating the right kind of barriers between housing and the wilderness areas, by maintaining your wilderness areas and by having appropriate resources in your fire department.”

That includes allocations from Measure X, a general purpose sales tax, to staff fire stations, fire mitigation and the increase in service for the Pinole Fire Department. Richmond also, for example, recently called for an ad-hoc committee for wildfire preparedness and mitigation.

“Congratulations, Contra Costa County…you’re doing the right thing,” Thornberg said.

The next regularly scheduled Contra Costa County Board of Supervisors meeting is on Feb. 4.