23 Sep Latino Voter Survey Reflects Impact of ‘Broken Promises’

Contra Costa County elections staff helps students at Richmond High School pre-register to vote on Sept. 15. The Contra Costa County Office of Education and Elections Division partnered with local high schools for California High School Voter Education Weeks and National Voter Registration Day. (Contra Costa County Office of Education and Elections Division via Bay City News)

By Ruth Dusseault
Bay City News

A new statewide survey of Latino voters in California shows dissatisfaction with the direction of the country, concern about the economy, and widespread disapproval of President Donald Trump’s handling of key issues.

Yet, the poll also reveals a lack of clarity around Proposition 50, a measure tied to redistricting, suggesting Latino voters will be pivotal in shaping both state and national outcomes in the coming year.

The poll released Tuesday by the Latino Community Foundation surveyed 1,200 registered Latino voters across the state, oversampling in the Inland Empire and Central Valley to capture regional perspectives. The survey was conducted between Sept. 8-16.

Julian Castro, CEO of the foundation, said the poll offers “a temperature check” on Latino sentiment about elected officials and pressing issues.

“We believe that what Latino voters are thinking in California right now is going to be tremendously important to what happens in November on items like Prop 50, and also ultimately to what happens in the midterm elections in 2026,” Castro said.

ECONOMIC CONCERNS DRIVE DISSATISFACTION

The poll revealed that nearly half of Latino voters, 47 %, believe their personal economic situation has worsened since the start of the Trump administration, including 50% of respondents in the Central Valley. When asked if the administration has been effective in addressing inflation and the rising cost of living, 68% said no.

Gary Segura, principal at the company that conducted the survey, BSP Research, noted that the findings mark a sharp decline in optimism compared to surveys conducted just a year ago.

“We found a 35-point turnaround in a negative direction,” Segura explained. “Latinos are a remarkably optimistic community, but this is the most pessimistic finding we’ve ever seen.”

Latino voters expressed support for progressive state policies aimed at economic fairness. More than 80% favored requiring wealthy corporations to pay higher taxes, creating investment funds for housing, regulating artificial intelligence, and having clean energy community benefits. About 73% supported expanding California health care programs for undocumented immigrants.

BROKEN PROMISES AND APPROVAL RATINGS

Immigration remains a defining issue for Latino voters. Three out of four respondents said President Trump broke his campaign promise to target only violent offenders for deportation.

“Half report that they’re worried for themselves or family member or other loved one who is at risk,” said Segura. “And by a 3 to 1 margin, Latino voters believe that President Trump broke his promise and is deporting more than just criminals, arresting people who are just going about their daily lives but happen not to have documentation.”

The poll also found overwhelming support, by a 3-to-1 margin, for legislation banning federal agents from wearing masks, a measure Gov. Gavin Newsom signed earlier this month. Respondents cited both safety and transparency as reasons for support.

While Trump’s favorable approval rating among California Latinos sits at just 31%, with 67% disapproving of the way the president is handling his job, 65% of respondents said Newsom is handling his job well.

U.S. Sen. Alex Padilla is favored by 49% of voters as a gubernatorial candidate, with 38% favoring Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass.

When asked if they had the chance to redo the 2024 presidential election, 52% of respondents said they would vote for former vice president Kamala Harris.

PROPOSITION 50 AND REDISTRICTING AWARENESS

One area where opinions remain less defined is Proposition 50, California’s response to Texas’s controversial mid-census redistricting. Prop 50 would temporarily create more Democratic Congressional districts to match the additional conservative representatives possibly coming from Texas.

Although 54% of Latino voters expressed general support for redistricting, awareness of Prop 50 itself remains low, with 29% saying they have heard little about the Texas redistricting.

Segura noted that people with higher educations are more likely to learn about what’s happening in Texas, and those voters who know more about Texas are more likely to support Prop 50. Support is highest in Los Angeles County and the Bay Area, while the Central Valley and Inland Empire show greater uncertainty.

Whether the redistricting will create opportunities for Latino candidates made a big difference, with 85% of voters saying that it was important for the new maps to create districts in which Latino candidates have a fair opportunity to win election to Congress.

Perceived threats to voters were also a factor, with 66% reporting worry about the possibility of Trump sending federal officials to monitor voting centers around the state. However, most Californians vote by mail, according to Segura.

“Latinos are the largest group in California now, and Democratic priorities are not winnable without Latino votes,” said Segura. “Latinos are also going to be quite critical to the net effect of California’s and Texas’ redistricting, because the Texas folks took a gamble that Latino voters who shifted to the right in 2024 would stay there for 2026. I think that was a bad risk for them. I actually think control of the House of Representatives will have a big Latino component a year from now.”

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