09 Feb Contra Costa Faces Housing, Growth Tensions as Economic Outlook Debated

Antioch City Hall hosted the Contra Costa County Board of Supervisors meeting on Feb. 3. (Screenshot captured by Samantha Kennedy / The CC Pulse)

By Samantha Kennedy

As the county looks to grapple with the impact of the so-called “Big Beautiful Bill” on safety net programs and varying economic narratives, one economist says growth in Contra Costa is possible.

During a retreat Feb. 3, county supervisors met at Antioch City Hall to hear a number of presentations on the local and federal economic outlook that are meant to help inform policy decisions. Christopher Thornberg, an economist with Beacon Economics who presented one, said the thing getting in the way of the state and county growing is itself.

“The county’s inability to grow is what’s holding your economic potential back. We all know what’s causing this: It’s a lack of housing, period,” said Thornberg.

Between 2019 and 2024, residential permits across the state dropped by more than 8,650, said Thornberg. The drop in Contra Costa was 852, with the steepest decreases happening in unincorporated areas, Walnut Creek and Brentwood. Home sales too are “depressed.”

Thornberg said regulations on developers, rent control and other stabilization ordinances are getting in the way of growing housing, including affordable, to increase economic growth.

Antioch, Concord and Richmond have rent control or stabilization ordinances in place and so does the state, though Contra Costa does not. Officials in cities like San Pablo have previously refused to pass such policies, prompting residents to start their own efforts.

“How do you help renters? Well, how do you mess with landlords? Let them build whatever they want. By flooding the market with supply, that’s what ultimately makes housing affordable,” said Thornberg.

Thornberg said the traditional “filtering” process — where residents move from one residence to a newer one, leaving the one lower in price vacant for another to move into — is broken. That’s because residents are holding onto their homes because of prices.

He also pointed to the importance of workspaces, citing developments in the North Bay such as California Forever, as “the blueprint” for combining places to live and work to drive growth in the county.

“You have it all right there at your fingertips to build a new modern manufacturing hub,” he said.

Supervisor Shanelle Scales-Preston noted that while East County has seen significant housing development, it has not been matched with job growth.

In East Contra Costa, the city of Pittsburg has at least 17 housing projects that have been approved and another four under construction, according to city data. Antioch last fall approved two housing projects that total almost 300 units. Another eight projects are also underway in Brentwood.

Occupied office spaces decreased in the last year in the Antioch-Pittsburg area, along with the county, but with one of the lowest changes in the county. But Thornberg said that the county needs to move away from office space.

Earlier in his presentation, Thornberg said prices for essentials like food were not a major concern, that the economy “looks pretty good,” and that most residents are “doing quite well.”

Not everyone agreed with Thornberg’s analysis. Some residents said it was missing a human component.

“I hear statements like, ‘The people who live here are for the most part doing quite well.’ That narrative is not just false, it is harmful,” said Rachel Rosekind.

“It doesn’t mean people aren’t struggling,” Thornberg said in response to such comments. “But that said, a strong, growing economy with lots of job opportunities based around brand new housing developments with enormous industrial developments in this part of the world … is what will fix your budget.”